While there are 12 teams that go on in the post-season to compete for the world title, the other 18 organizations are looking to the future, including where they might choose in the 2023 draft.
In the past, at the close of the regular season, it was possible to get an approximate pass from the first-round standings based on the reverse order of the standings. But thanks to the latest collective bargaining agreement, there’s a new wrinkle in the game when it comes to drafting.
For the first time, the ranking of the six best draft picks will be determined by lottery rather than simply the reverse order of the previous year’s ranking, with the lottery expected to take place at the San Diego Winter Meetings in early December.
The teams with the three worst records in 2022 – the Nationals, A’s and Pirates – have the best chance (16.5 percent each) of getting a first overall selection via the lottery, although all 18 teams that did not participate in the playoffs will have a chance to land it. The percentage for other teams will drop in reverse order of their records, to 0.23 percent for the club not participating in a playoff with the highest winning percentage.
As in previous years, any regular season record tie is broken by the previous year’s record, and continues with each subsequent previous year’s record until the tie is broken.
Draft lottery odds for choosing #1
1. Citizens (55-107) 16.5%
2. A (60-102), 16.5
3.Pirate (62-100), 16.5
4. Reds (62-100), 13.25
5. Royals (65-97), 10.0
6. Tigers (66-96), 7.50
7- Rangers (68-94), 5.50
8. The Rockies (68-94), 3.90
9. Marlins (69-93), 2.70
10. Angels (73-89), 1.80
11. D-backs (74-88), 1.40
12. Cubs (74-88) 1.10
13. Twins (78-84) 0.90
14. Red Sox (78-84) 0.76
15. White Sox (81-81), 0.62
16. Giants (81-81), 0.48
17. Orioles (83-79), 0.36
18. Brewer (86-76), 0.23
Teams that receive Revenue Sharing Payments cannot receive a sweepstakes selection for more than two consecutive years, and Teams that do not receive Revenue Sharing Payments cannot receive the Top Six in consecutive drafts. Furthermore, a club that is not eligible for the lottery cannot generally select a higher than 10.
The draft will remain in 20 rounds, and after the first round, teams that do not belong to the post-season will be selected in reverse order of win percentage. In all 20 rounds, qualifier clubs will choose in reverse order to finish the post-season (Wild Card losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Championship losers, World Championship winner). Within each of the playoff groups, teams will be sorted by revenue sharing status and then reversed in order of winning percentage.
With six picks, the MLB Lottery extends deeper than any major American sports league. The top four NBA picks and the first two NHL picks are subject to a lottery, while the NFL doesn’t have any.
If the Nationals take first, it would be the first time a selection has been made since they took over Bryce Harper in 2010, a year after they also beat Stephen Strasburg 1-1. Team A, with the second-best odds of winning the lottery, took first place in 1965, when they took Rick Monday as the first draft pick in major league history. Buccaneers Henry Davis finished first in the 2021 draft. The Reds have never picked first place, having picked second place recently, in both 2016 (Nick Senzel) and 2017 (Hunter Green). After finishing in the top five in terms of lottery odds, the Royals have picked 1-1 only once in franchise history, capturing Luke Hochevar in 2006, but have picked second place three times, most recently when they took home Bobby Witt Jr. 2019.
It’s too early to tell who will be the best in 2023, but MLB Pipeline recently put Indiana prep Max Clarke on top of it. High school prospects list Louisiana State player Dylan Cruz is ranked No college list. Much will change between now and the draft next July, set to be held in Seattle, the site of the 2023 All-Star Game.
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