Thursday, July 18, 2024

A Trump-Biden rematch seems inevitable, and here's what can prevent it


Angela Weiss, Mandel NGAN/AFP As in November 2020, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face each other again during the 2024 presidential election.

Angela Weiss, Mandel NGAN/AFP

As in November 2020, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face each other again during the 2024 presidential election.

United States – Fighting will happen. Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are set to face each other again in the November presidential election in the United States, after their landslide victories on Super Tuesday and Nikki Haley dropping out hours later.

As the journalist explains The New York Times Shane Goldmacher This is the first time in nearly 70 years that two general election candidates have faced each other in two consecutive presidential elections. In 1952 and 1956, Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower faced Democrat Adlai Stevenson. Both times he won. Joe Biden would certainly like history to repeat itself.

If the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden seems inevitable, the presidential election is eight months away. Lay HuffPost Below we propose some hypotheses that could prevent this fight from taking place.

• Joe Biden

The outgoing president knows this very well, he is not the candidate the Democrats want. Too old (81 years old), too stupid, too unattractive … But when he planned to hand over to his vice-president Kamala Harris in 2024, he didn't go beyond the walls of the White House. So Joe Biden decided to come back and project himself as the only person in the party who could defeat Donald Trump.

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However, a few weeks ago, the politico-media sphere began to imagine the Octagon abandoning itself. Three possibilities emerge: if the party gets a better opportunity, becomes unable to perform its functions due to health reasons or dies during the election process.

The first option seems more implausible given the inability of other potential candidates to win (and the president's ego). Names like California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer continue to be mentioned, but it's hard to imagine their progress between the party's convention in August.

However, the other two options are more realistic and where the Democratic Party would declare an emergency. Presidential incapacity would constitutionally propel Kamala Harris to the Oval Office, but the vice president would not automatically be named the presidential nominee.

It is important to understand the process of nominating a candidate for a general election. During primary elections, voters actually vote for delegates who are “tied” to a candidate. It is they who participate in the party convention, where the presidential candidate is definitively selected.

If the president leaves before this convention, the delegates pledged to Joe Biden will be forced to vote for another candidate of their choice. This situation promises a hellish battle for influence. In the event of a ban after this convention, the National Party officials must decide on a replacement after consultation with governors, elected congressional representatives, and other key members of the party.

• Donald Trump

With revenge after his defeat in 2020 and his complete control over the Republican Party, Donald Trump's thirst for revenge is so great that it is impossible to imagine him voluntarily stepping down. But for Joe Biden, the 77-year-old billionaire is not immune to health problems. If you can't run, the Republican rules are the same as the Democratic rules summarized above.

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What about a penalty? According to the Constitution, a person must be born and have lived in the United States for 14 years and must be at least 35 years old to be president. A prison sentence would probably have an effect on his voters that would turn them away from him, but that would not stop Donald Trump from running for office in any case. A few days ago, the Supreme Court ruled that the real estate magnate cannot be disqualified from the primaries. In the past, one man campaigned behind bars: Eugene Victor Debs, in 1920. It shows that anything is possible.

Indeed, only the emergence of a third personality could shake up the Trump-Biden fight a little. For example, in 2024, conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (son-in-law of John F. Kennedy), an independent, and environmentalist Jill Stein for the Green Party. For now, neither of these candidates overshadows the other two.

Or should we rely on a personality that has yet to announce itself? The No Labels movement has been trying for months to field a potential candidate against Donald Trump and Joe Biden to try to influence the election. Failed so far.

See more Lay HuffPost :

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Agapito Llano

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