Dow futures fell overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. All eyes are on the March jobs report on Friday morning, but US stock markets will be closed.
The stock market rally ended a deceptively difficult week. The main indicators were mixed for this week. They all look relatively normal or healthy, especially with Thursday’s bounce off the lows.
But many blue chips suffered sharp losses, although they generally found support on Thursday. Some had minor damage while others may need more repair work. Tesla (TSLA) somewhere in the middle after the big weekly losses.
Google stock is in IBD Long-Term Leaders.
The video embedded in the article discussed weekly market movement and analyzed Google, BABA, and Intuitive surgery (ISRG).
The Labor Department will release the March jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect to see non-farm payrolls increase by 238,000, down from 311,000 in February but still relatively high. The unemployment rate should remain at 3.6%. Hourly earnings were up 0.3% compared to February with year-over-year gains falling to 4.3%.
The jobs report follows several other signs of slowing labor markets and the overall economy. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 1st came in at 228,000, well above expectations for 201,000. Previous week’s claims were revised up by 48,000 to 246,000, amid significant seasonal adjustments to adjust adjustments.
Job openings in February fell to their lowest level in nearly two years, though they are still relatively high. Private payroll growth slowed much more than expected, to 145,000 in March, the ADP estimates.
Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Index indicated a deeper contraction while the ISM Services Index pointed to much slower growth, with several sub-metrics reinforcing the weaker economic narrative.
After months of cheering any signs of economic weakness, in recent days investors are suddenly worried about recession risks. Banking problems will almost certainly slow lending, which will brake the economy.
Dow jones futures today
Dow futures fell 0.1% against fair value. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.1%.
US stock markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.
Dow futures will only trade until 9:15 am ET, which doesn’t provide much opportunity for US investors to react to the jobs report before Monday. However, European markets will trade until noon ET today.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Stock market rise
The stock market witnessed a mixed week for the major indices and volatile movement in the blue chips.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed just above the break-even point in stock market trading on Thursday. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.8%. Small Capital Russell 2000 rose 0.1%.
For the week shortened over the holiday, the Dow Jones rose 0.6% while the S&P 500 fell 0.1%. The Nasdaq fell 1.1% and the Russell 2000 fell 2.5%.
US crude oil prices jumped 6.65% to $80.92 a barrel during the week, with most of those gains coming on Monday after a surprise OPEC+ production cut. Crude oil futures are up 20.9% over the past three weeks.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 22 basis points for the week to 3.28%, hitting a seven-month low.
Exchange Traded Funds
Among the ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (fifty(down 3.5% for the week, while IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF)fit) lost 2.8%. iShares Expanded Technology and Software ETF (IGV) fell 1.6%, and Microsoft stock was a major component. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor Corporation (SMH) decreased by 4.1%.
Reflecting more speculative stories, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARK)ark(down 4.4% this week and the ARK Genomics ETF)ARKG) 1.2%, although both rebounded on Thursday. Tesla stock is a major holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETFs (XME(Down 3.4% this week and US X Global Infrastructure Development Fund (ETF) )cradle) decreased by 5.7%. US Global Gates Foundation ETF (Planes) down 2.7%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) gave up 4.8%.
Bank stocks rebounded again on Thursday, but it was a tough week. SPDR Financial Selection Fund (XLF) fell 0.5% for the week. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 2.8%, bouncing back Thursday from a two-year close low. c. B. Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (c), Wells Fargo (WFC) All reports on April 14, along with the Super Regional PNC Finance (PNC) and boxed The first republic (FRC).
Top five Chinese stocks to watch now
Google stock jumped 3.8% Thursday to 108.42 in above-average trading volume. Stocks cleared a cup-by-handle buy point at 106.69 according to MarketSmith analysis, hitting their best level since September. GOOGL stock is a long-term leader, but it looks a bit stretched from the major moving averages to start a position as an LTL.
The Google CEO said the company will add AI chat to its search engine shortly after Microsoft (MSFT) added ChatGPT to the Bing search engine and other products.
Alibaba stock rose 4.25% Thursday to 102.74, breaking the downtrend of the handle, providing an early entry into the e-commerce and cloud computing giant. The new handle is just above the 50-day line but is too low in consolidation to be considered adequate. Still, 105.15 is another potential entry.
BABA stock rose in the previous week after Alibaba announced plans to split into six different units with their own executives and the option to file for IPOs.
Tesla stock fell 10.8% to 185.06 for the week after its record first-quarter delivery fell short of views. Shares fell below the 200.76 cup handle buy point and the 50-day moving average.
The base formed below the 200-day line, which is not significant. The buy point 200.76 is no longer valid, but TSLA stock is working on a new handle, which is already on the weekly chart, with an entry of 207.89. And of course, the 200-day line is still just above that. Ideally, the shares would be consolidated for a longer period, bringing the 200-day drift closer to the official buy point.
Tesla’s first quarter earnings are due April 19th.
Market rally analysis
The stock market rally witnessed a normal and healthy decline on the major indices during the week.
The Nasdaq lost some of its gains, but regained the 12,000 level on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell while the Dow Jones rose, supported by energy and medical names.
Megacaps success has been good. Google stock was strong in the week and Meta platforms (meta) continued to rise. apple (AAPL) And Microsoft shares were little changed, on the edge of buy territory. while, Exxon Mobil (xom), merck (Mrk) And United Health (United nations) made big weekly gains.
But there were a lot of big losers during the week. Construction groups and industry-related groups fell on Tuesday while growth stocks sold off on Wednesday. Many suffered severe damage, while others could return to their positions relatively soon. Thursday’s bounces, mostly from key levels, were certainly encouraging.
Defensive growth and defensive names had a strong week, with pharmaceuticals, consumer goods and utilities showing strength.
Will these areas continue to do well if the “risk on risk” mentality returns?
The stock market isn’t quite sure what to do in the event of weaker economic data. In recent days, investors have suddenly become more afraid of a recession. Market reactions to economic data may remain in flux for some time.
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What are you doing now
In a few days or weeks, investors may look back and say it was “obvious” that the market had a healthy stall this week — or that it was “obvious” that blue chip stocks were flashing major warning signs.
But investors don’t have hindsight — or foresight. All you can do is pay attention to what the market is doing now. Currently, the market rally is giving some mixed signals.
Investors can have slight to moderate exposure to the market, depending on the performance of their positions.
If you significantly increase your growth stock early in the week, Wednesday’s losses will be painful. This is especially true if you are heavily concentrated in hard-hit stocks.
Gradually increasing your exposure to several diverse leaders will limit your downside while still offering plenty of opportunities for big gains.
Investors may have reduced exposure this week just to get out of losing positions or take profits.
If some stocks get dumped, that’s okay, even if they bounce back soon.
Buying and selling rules are not designed to work every time, but they give you the best odds of success over time.
If this market rally moves higher again, many stocks will flash buy signals again, including some that ran out of jerks this week. So work on your watchlists over the weekend.
Read the big picture every day to stay in sync with market trend, leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @employee For stock market updates and more.
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