Saturday, July 13, 2024

How Ukraine Prepares Its Forces for a Counterattack in Top Secret

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They know that most of them are at risk of perishing or being seriously injured in the upcoming battles. Across Ukraine, tens of thousands of men – and women – are engaged this winter. Since February 24, 2022, or they have been training hard to take part in the recapture of their country’s territories occupied by Russia since 2014 – the beginning of the victory of pro-Russian movements with the help of Moscow and part of Crimea. Donbass, in the east.

This reorganization could, in theory, be launched in the future within the framework of a broader counteroffensive, but all the details are secret, facing the need to solve the problem of human resources. War needs fighters. A less important question than arms and munitions from the Western Allies is nevertheless one of the centers of future military events.

Classified as secret, the losses suffered by Ukrainian forces over a fortnight are now estimated at around 100,000, with a minority killed and most wounded unable to take up arms again. “In theory, a three to one ratio in favor of the attacker is needed to succeed in crime. Oleksiy Melnyk, a military analyst at the Razumkov Center think tank, says: But really, raw numbers aren’t the only thing that matters. Many factors are more important than numbers of men, guns or armor. »

Create surprise

The level of technology, the morale of the troops and the ability to surprise the enemy can be more important than the simple numerical data of manpower. “There will be elements of surprise [durant la contre-offensive] to our enemyreiterates Oleksii Melnyk. One should certainly not repeat the methods used earlier during the Kharkiv and Gerson counterattacks [à l’automne 2022]. I am sure that innovative approaches will be used. »

“Our enemy will have more and more surprises”, confirms the commander of Viï, an intelligence force that has returned from four months of training in the United Kingdom. The tall man, flanked by two companions, wearing masks and armed with assault rifles, met by chance in a town near the Russian border, explains that he is not authorized to speak to the media. Formed in the spring of 2023, the Viï is part of a constellation of all-discretionary units based on the structure of the Northern Operational Command.

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Agapito Llano
Agapito Llano

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