May 17, 2022

Balkan Travellers

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Mariupol is a very precarious situation; The Russians are slowly advancing on the Donbass

The ruble first fell sharply after the Russian invasion, and then it was actually stabilized. This is explained by the massive intervention of the Central Bank of Russia to control the fall of the Russian currency. March 28, The Wall Street Magazine Wrote that the central bank holds the ruble “In an artificial coma”.

To put things more precisely, the price of a coin in the forex market varies according to supply and demand: if everyone sells their rubles, the price goes down; Conversely, if many investors buy the ruble, prices will rise. To maintain the trend of the ruble, it is necessary to prevent the large holders of the Russian currency from removing it and encouraging the purchase of the ruble. But this is exactly what the Russian currency authorities have done.

Since the first days of the war and the first sanctions announced, the central bank has raised its key rate from 9.5% to 20%, the largest. How does this affect the price of the ruble? Simply put, the policy rate determines the interest rates (price of money) in the country. The higher the interest rate, the more money there is for borrowers, and the more lenders it brings. When the central bank acts to raise these interest rates, it wants to induce investors to buy bonds in the Russian market (for sure, to become a lender, to give money), so the ruble should buy.

Other measures have also been taken. In Russia, for example, the purchase of foreign currency is prohibited (hence “Sell” Ruble against another currency), there is a limit to withdrawals from foreign currency accounts opened in Russian banks, loans (even those contracted in dollars or euros) must be repaid in rubles …, Vladimir Putin designed for Western countries pay in dollars or euros more for their gas imports ; This is a way of supporting the Russian currency. All these measures are aimed at stabilizing the course of the ruble, without reflecting the real state of the Russian economy. “If there is independent movement [des monnaies] Either way [en Russie]The ruble will be very weak. Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance The Wall Street Journal.

It remains to be seen how long this will last. According to our economist Mary Charlene, it is difficult to say because Russia’s central bank reserves held abroad are frozen: this means they cannot be used to support the ruble. So its room for maneuver is limited. According to The EchoesRussia’s central bank reserves fell $ 38.8 billion between February 18 and March 25 due to pro – ruble interventions.

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