US stock futures rise ahead of jobs data, oil eyes 13% weekly drop

LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday ahead of U.S. employment data as markets awaited signs of inflation, while oil headed for a 13% weekly decline after the Reserve releases.

Investors are concerned about whether inflationary pressures will force central banks to raise interest rates significantly, which could trigger a recession.

US jobs data for March will be watched at 1230 GMT for indicators of wage inflation, as well as key job numbers.

“Average hourly earnings are rising but at a slower rate than inflation,” said Sebastian Galley, chief macro analyst at Nordea Asset Management, adding that the US Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 50 basis points in May.

Data on Friday showed euro zone inflation rose to 7.5% in March, hitting another record high with months to go before peaking, adding to pressure on the European Central Bank to act to contain prices even as growth slows sharply. Read more

Investors are also assessing recession risks from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

European buyers of Russian gas faced an April 1 deadline to start paying in rubles, even though Russian gas poured into Europe on Friday. Read more

“The risks of recession in select countries such as Germany from stopping the delivery of gas would be insignificant,” Galley said.

But, he added, “Russia is basically a gas station. If a gas station doesn’t sell their products, they go bankrupt – they’re not in a position of strength.”

US S&P futures rose 0.46%, indicating a higher open on Wall Street. European stocks (.stoxx) It rose 0.53% and the British FTSE 100 index (.FTSE) 0.14% profit.

US and European stocks posted their biggest quarterly declines since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in the quarter ended March 31.

But the quarterly decline in US stocks masked a belated return of the S&P 500 index (.SPX), which climbed from a drop of nearly 13% a month ago to end the quarter from around 5%. Read more

MSCI World Stock Index (.MIWD00000PUS) Little change in the day and heading for a flat week, after pulling back from a six-week high hit on Wednesday.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei (.N225) It was down 0.56%, up 1.7% weekly.

Supply disruptions and rising raw material costs pushed Japanese business confidence to a nine-month low in the last quarter. Read more

Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) It rose 1.27%, buoyed by hopes for easing in politics.

Oil fell in and out of negative territory ahead of a meeting of the member states of the International Energy Agency scheduled to discuss the release of emergency oil reserves along with the massive release planned by the United States.

Oil is on track for a weekly decline of 12% to 13% – the worst in nearly two years, after a previous conflict-driven surge in Ukraine sent prices up more than 30%.

US crude futures fell 0.1 percent a barrel to $100.14, while Brent crude futures rose 0.38 percent to $104.94.

The closely watched spread between 2-year and 10-year US bonds is nearly zero.

A reversal in this part of the US yield curve is seen as a reliable indication that a recession may follow in one to two years. The benchmark 10-year note yielded 2.4078%, while the 2-year yield was 2.3834%.

The yield on German 10-year government bonds, a benchmark for the euro zone, rose 2.8 basis points to 0.58%, after jumping 39 basis points in March, its biggest monthly rise since 2009, amid expectations of tighter monetary policy. Read more

“Government yields have risen significantly in recent weeks and are expected to trend higher over time due to surviving inflationary pressures and the responses of major central banks,” said Christian Nolting, chief global investment officer at Deutsche Bank Private. Bank in a note.

The dollar benefited from safe haven flows and expectations of higher US interest rates. Against a basket of other currencies, the dollar rose 0.13% to 98.446, and it rose 0.61% against the yen at 122.42.

The euro settled at 1.1060 dollars.

Safe-haven gold fell 0.55 percent after its biggest quarterly gain in two years. Spot gold was last set at $1,926.67 an ounce.

Additional reporting by Andrew Galbraith in Shanghai, Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Saikat Chatterjee in London. Editing by Simon Cameron Moore, Catherine Evans and Barbara Lewis

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