In the midst of the war with Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s speech on Monday was expected and feared, with international observers fearing the announcement of an escalation in the conflict. That did not happen.
In the conflict in Ukraine, May 9 was expected and feared. On the Russian side, it was the day marking the end of World War II, the military parade and the speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin. But for several days, it was feared that the Kremlin leader would issue serious announcements, which led to the intensification of the current war in Ukraine.
However, the Russian president made a shorter speech than usual with the usual campaign to justify Russian intervention in Ukraine, but he did not mention the nuclear attack, nor did he talk about war or prolongation of the conflict, nor did he call on the world to avoid it. War.
“It’s hard to analyze a mere 10 minute text, it’s very empty,” BFMTV’s Josephine Storon, director of think tank Synopia’s studies and international relations, said on Monday. He talks about a “classic” speech in which “no surprises”. However he acknowledged that their numbers were not enough to defeat Vladimir Putin’s long speeches. “Nothing to say, talk,” he sings Announced at France Info Journalist and expert in geopolitics Bernard Gutta.
“Russia has no choice but to defend the homeland, except to be reminded of the fact that Russian-backed separatists and Russian troops are fighting on their lands … this is no longer valid. It has nothing to do with February 24, the first day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” Patrick Sauce says. “No breath, no story.”
On February 24, during his speech announcing the invasion of Ukraine, he was so vicious that he threatened those who “tried to interfere in us” with an “immediate” response from Russia, “with consequences you did not yet know”. This time, he addressed the Russian people above all else, announcing aid to the families of soldiers killed in the past, and declaring that “everything must be done for this world war.” [en référence avec la Seconde Guerre mondiale, NDLR] It will never happen again. “
“He’s playing with us.”
To Helen Blank, a political scientist and expert in the Russian world, “a lot of people imagined this May 9”, strong statements are expected, and the Kremlin may have played into this expectation.
“If we know Vladimir Putin well, we know he’s hot and cold, and he’s fun to scare us, while at times we reassure ourselves as we do today,” he says. “He’s a lot of fun with us. He plays with us (…) and above all, he’s a real boss and he wants to show us that he’s a master of the game.
However, the political scientist notes that the Russian president was less defensive than usual for this type of meeting. “I remember the old march, which lasted not an hour, but two hours, sometimes standing with all the officials of the regime,” said the soldiers, key ministers … “
“Is it fatigue, exhaustion or part of a strategy we don’t know about? All hypotheses are open,” says Josephine Staran.
“War will last long”
If the possibility of a nuclear attack is not mentioned, Vladimir Putin has indicated that he wants to continue the war, provoking a “completely unacceptable threat” and developing “directly on our borders” and renewing his accusations against Nazism. Against Ukraine.
“He did not announce anything specific, but he did not announce the end of a fight or the end of an attack,” Josephine Starone underlined. Weeks, it is not going to change (…) It does not seem to be a real turning point in the war in Ukraine, it continues, it will continue.
“We tell ourselves the war will last a long time. For me it was like a war talk without pronouncing the word war,” said BFMTV’s Defense Adviser General Jerome Belistrandi. In his speech, Vladimir Putin pointed out that “Danbos was greatly emphasized, so does it mean that the purpose of the war will be limited to Donbass? There is a lot of ambiguity.”
“The news we were expecting from the West did not happen,” says Patrick Sass, however, “for Ukrainians subject to bombing and Russian occupation, May 9 is like May 8 and undoubtedly 10”.
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According to ISW, Vladimir Putin remains determined to “achieve a complete victory in Ukraine” despite the failure of his winter offensive.