Thursday, July 25, 2024

4-Week Trend: Summer vacation weather until mid-August


By Regis CrebetMeteorologist

Every week, the monthly weather trend is updated. It runs until August 14 and coincides with the main summer school holidays and the start of the harvest. The trend highlights a long period of warm weather with a slowly fading heat wave after the July 14 long weekend. For the rest, the weather will be hot and sometimes stormy, with good conditions for holidaymakers. On the other hand, the drought will worsen significantly. Thunderstorms are not expected to offset the deficit.

Hot and prolonged dry weather has prevailed in the country since early July. Scorching temperatures will peak early next week. Eventually returning thunderstorms may not be enough to stop the surface drought.

Week of July 18 to 24: A very slow end to the heat wave

Earlier in the week, till Tuesday, the heat wave reached its second peak in intensity with values ​​close to 40 degrees Celsius in a large number of areas. The cold front will eventually rise towards the British Isles, bringing thunderstorms along the northwest edge of the country. It will reduce temperatures slightly in the north, but values ​​will remain above normal. Elsewhere, the weather will be very dry, with little to no precipitation, and the drop in temperatures will be very slow, with still scorching values ​​lasting through the weekend.

Week of July 25 to 31: Thunderstorms and bearable heat

The last week of July may mark the end of the anti-cyclone barrier, a stormy disturbance that can cross the country, bringing some rain but very unevenly depending on the region. Temperatures, initially very high, will eventually drop behind the storms. A mistral episode may continue in the Mediterranean, raising fears of fire risk due to drought. Whatever happens, this July will end up with a rain deficit despite the rain from this storm.

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Week 1R Until August 7: Stormy and hot again

Another cold snap could develop in Portugal, rekindling fears of rising temperatures from the south-west. It is difficult to be more precise at this time, but the state of temperature in the country will again depend on the state of this cold fall. A priori, the south will be more affected by the heat, even if temporarily the latter goes as far north. A cold fall, during this time, can bring instability with heavy and stormy weather. Again, these storms are scattered and not everyone is in the same boat.

Week of August 8 to 14: Fewer storms and unseasonably warm

The cold will end up moving towards France and cause more significant storm deterioration early in the period before more anticyclonic, less stormy and less warm weather returns.

So this month of July will end with a distinct lack of precipitation despite some expected storms, especially towards the end of the month. Temperatures will drop slowly while being above normal for the season. At least in the south it will be warm again at the beginning of August with the threat of extreme heat. So it is important to monitor this period. Finally, the second ten days of August should find cooler conditions with fewer and fewer storms.

Next update, Thursday, July 21 at 5 p.m.

Read more

July weather in France: heat and storms

Seasonal Forecast: Always warm, sometimes stormy trend

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