Donald Trump is in a strong position in the Republican primary as the nominations pile up

UNITED STATES – With a year and a half to go before the US presidential election, the Republican Party is fielding candidates. After Donald Trump, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley or Senator Tim Scott, former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum formalized their entrance into the arena on Wednesday, June 7. Earlier in the day, Chris Christie, a former ally of Donald Trump who has become one of his fiercest opponents, entered the race.

To date, there are ten of them running for the White House. They may soon be outnumbered: Miami’s mayor, Francis Suarez, has also expressed interest in participating in the protest. But the number of contenders could develop before the first debate on Aug. 23, where everyone will try to shine, and the first primary vote in Iowa in early 2024.

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Five thirty-eight polls of Republican primary candidates as of June 6, 2023.

The high numbers are a boon for Donald Trump, who — despite a new impeachment and 37 impeachments — currently leads the polls by more than 30 points over his main rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Mike Pence, who ditched Trump after his attacks on Congress in January 2021 and is careful not to mention or show his former mentor in his campaign video, is in third place with 5% of the vote.

“Pure Trumpists make up about one-third (35%) of Republican voters, or about 15% of the American electorate. This is small. The problem is that the remaining 65% are very mixed on their reasons for wanting an alternative to Trump.explains to HuffPost Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, lecturer at Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye and specialist in America. These majority voters will rally in small groups behind other candidates, who will never be able to compete with the billionaire.

“There’s a chance against DeSantis”

In addition to his loyal constituents, the former White House tenant benefits from the primary system. In fact in most cases, the residents of each state vote for their favorite candidate during a round election and the first comer wins all of the state’s representatives. Mechanically, the more competitors there are, the less high score required to win. Donald Trump, standing alone against all, has the advantage “Despite 35% of votes”Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy continues.

There is one unknown, however, an expert on American politics warns: “We must not forget that very few voters travel to vote in primaries. In 2016 and 2020, only 25% of Republicans voted. Will the Trumpists be motivated? Can another candidate rally his base? »

Faced with this observation, how can we explain the proliferation of these candidates? “Everybody thinks that DeSantis has a chance to be even further behind in the polls than the former president. Everybody hopes that he will win back a part of the electorate as a viable alternative.”, analyzes Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy. Mike Pence, for example, will attract evangelical Christians who will turn away from Florida’s ultra-conservative governor, who at the moment is seen as the only one who can beat the real estate mogul.

One objective: (a) To defeat Donald Trump

Other more strategists are trying to gain visibility with the general public and even with Donald Trump. If the latter is elected, he may choose former presidential candidates as vice-president or as a member of his administration. This happened in 2016 with Chris Christie. The governor of New Jersey lost in the primaries and later became a close adviser to Donald Trump. Before becoming a very important contender in the 2024 presidential election.

Instead, prominent figures have chosen not to run to unseat the former president, such as Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who has never endorsed him.

In an interview ReutersHe also expressed his concern. “I feel like we’re making the same mistake we did in 2016.”, referring to Donald Trump’s victory, made possible by 17 candidates (a record), 11 of whom participated in the primary. And to confirm that he “It is better to have a small number of candidates with one or two strong candidates than 10 or more candidates who fail to capture the attention of the party”.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu was more blunt in an op-ed published on June 5. The Washington Post “I have not announced myself as a candidate for 2024. Defeating Trump is more important. » His message is fighting for the moment to be heard.

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