July 29, 2021

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How will the epidemic recur in Europe?

Is Europe facing a fourth wave? Since the beginning of June, many European countries have begun to rise again with Covit-19 contaminants. In France, recovery from the epidemic began in early July, leading to a gradual extension of the use of the Emmanuel Macron Health Pass in order to encourage people to go for the vaccine.

Thanks to the Francifo Dashboard for tracking the evolution of the epidemic in France and around the world

France is not the only country experiencing a rise in the number of cases. As our map below shows, the health condition of our European neighbors is also deteriorating.

Questioned? The delta variant, in particular, is “Today it is in the majority in most European countries”, Report by Analyst Edward Mathew Our world in data (In English), An organization that monitors the evolution of epidemics in the world. However, significant disparities between countries appear.

Launched in early June, in the United Kingdom and Portugal

In early June, the United Kingdom, like Portugal, had the lowest number of new cases of Covit-19 in Europe: 50 cases per million people. Both countries escaped the third wave last spring.

However, since the beginning of June, new contaminants have started to rise again, with more than 50% of new cases every week. From mid-June, the United Kingdom had to postpone the last phase of its restructuring, and Portugal became one of the most contagious countries in Europe. The increase has not stopped since and has even accelerated in the UK, reaching more than 500 cases per million people daily, unprecedented in the UK since January. In Portugal, the incidence rate is 287 cases per one million people.

The role of the delta variant is 60% more contagious than the variants that had been prevalent in Europe until then, and these countries seem to have pioneered the early stages of the epidemic. After all, this is the analysis of Thibo Fiolat, who holds a doctorate in epidemiology. “These are the countries where delta variability was high, and this is when the first epidemic started again.”, He explains to franceinfo. By mid-June, the virus mutation was already in the majority there, Which represents less than 20% of new cases in other European countries. According to the latest statistics, the delta variant now accounts for more than 80% of cases in Portugal and almost 100% in the UK.

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In Spain and Greece, the acceleration of the epidemic at the end of June

The epidemic then re-emerged in Spain and Greece at the end of June. However, it was faster than the United Kingdom or Portugal, with the weekly increase quickly reaching +150%. In the week from June 28 to July 5, the incidence rate per million in Spain rose from 85 to 225. The following week, it rose from 78 to 190 in Greece.

The situation in Spain is particularly worrying. On July 14 the country had more than 430 cases per day per million people, which had not reached the country for almost 6 months, and is still in a dynamic state of strong progress. It should be noted that Spain is one of the most contagious countries in Europe before the outbreak. Thus, the daily incidence rate is not less than 70 per million people. In France, that number dropped to less than 30 at the end of June.

According to Thibo Fiolet, the role of the delta variant again seems decisive here: the deadline for most European countries to have data is June 28. Nearly 50% of cases in Spain are linked to news epidemics with the delta variant, one of the highest in Europe behind the UK and Portugal. In Greece, residents have been coming out of severe imprisonment for months, and the lack of data on variations makes the analysis much more difficult. But Greek authorities are taking the threat seriously and have announced new measures similar to those announced by Emmanuel Macron on Monday.

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In France, Switzerland and Belgium, the epidemic gradually begins again in July

In France, Switzerland and Belgium, the increase in new cases began in the first days of July. It was slower than Spain or Greece. For now, the number of new daily cases does not exceed 120 contaminants per million people in Belgium. Daily occurrence rates in France and Switzerland ranged from 58 and 40 to 14 July.

All three countries are experiencing similar growth The number of cases worldwide has more than doubled since the beginning of July, from July 1 to 14 of the European average, from more than 50,000 cases per day to less than 100,000.

By the end of June, the prevalence of delta variation in these countries was still within the European average, with 25 to 40% of infected people affected by this virus mutation. The Public Health France Latest Statistics Show that this variation is gradually establishing itself in the French territory: it represents two-thirds of the new contaminants in the week from July 6 to 12. The gradual arrival of this variation, as explained by Francinefo Oliver Quirin, a member of the Scientific Council, explains this revision in moderation at this time.

In the Netherlands, recently erupted

In the Netherlands, the curve makes you dizzy. As of July 5, the country had a low virus circulation, comparable to that of Belgium. In 10 days, the number of daily cases increased almost tenfold, from just 800 to 8,000 cases. Unheard of in Europe since the outbreak. The country has been stuck with the UK for two weeks in terms of virus circulation.

What happened ? “This new wave is so recent that it is difficult to identify the causes.“, Underlining Edward Mathews. Like all parts of Europe, the delta variant participates in the recovery. But on June 28, it still represents only a quarter of the contaminants that made the Netherlands one of the Western European countries with the lowest cycle of this virus mutation.

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To Thebo Pilot, “It’s especially polluted for 18-30 years.” He improves it “Restaurants are the first source of pollution identified by local authorities.” It reopened at the end of April. RIVM (equivalent to French public health in the Netherlands) is highlighted In the July 9 report (In Dutch) The appearance of multiple clusters at student banquets organized in hotels or restaurants. A music festival organized in early July also contributed to the epidemic recovery, Despite the use of the Health Pass, thousands of people have been affected.

Very low circulation of the virus in Germany, Italy and Austria

They seem to be taking refuge in the present. In Italy, Austria and Germany, the fourth wave is far away. Admittedly the number of cases has increased in the first two weeks of July, but the incidence rate is very low, with less than 25 cases per million people per day. To say an idea, France has not experienced a low cycle of this virus for almost a year.

Although the delta variant is in the majority, with a greater share than in the Netherlands, why is the epidemic stopping? Two factors need to be emphasized. First, in the low pre-circulation of the virus: these countries reached a low incidence rate of less than 12 by the end of June. In addition, as in Austria and Germany, controlled health measures are maintained there. Both German-speaking countries have already extended the use of the Health Pass for several weeks. Thus the document or document is necessary to go to the hairdresser.