May 30, 2024

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Iran has launched a drone and missile attack against Israel in retaliation for the bombing of its embassy in Damascus and declares that the “case” is now “closed”.

Iran has launched a drone and missile attack against Israel in retaliation for the bombing of its embassy in Damascus and declares that the “case” is now “closed”.

“The end of the shadow war between Israel and Iran,” says researcher Hamidreza Azisi

Iran's unprecedented strike against Israel using drones and ballistic missiles on Saturday evening was in response to attacks attributed to the Jewish state against the diplomatic wing of Iran's embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus on April 1, killing two generals, including Iranian Revolutionary Guards. By late morning, Tehran said it had already seized a merchant ship chartered by a company linked to an Israeli businessman in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik research institute in Berlin, the Iranian attack went beyond that. “Calculated Response” Some observers predict that this is due to Iran's reluctance to provoke open conflict with Israel and its US allies. We witness, he believes, “The end of the shadow war between Israel and Iran. There are no gray areas between the two camps. The only question is how far this new level of conflict will go…”

The attack in Damascus a ” message [de la part d’Israël] The old rules of engagement no longer apply. For Iran, it is a caveat that the strategy of using cronies will not provide a deterrent against Israeli attacks. » Iran has actually maintained a strategy so far “Plausible Denial” By letting its allies in “Axis of Resistance” – Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Yemeni Houthis – attack the Hebrew government in support of the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The attack in Damascus presented Iran with a strategic dilemma: risk retaliating or risk provoking open conflict with Israel or lose its deterrent power. ” Iran's thinking is that we need a concrete answer, at the risk of a war, which will happen in a few years anyway.The expert continues.

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According to the latter, Iran postponed its response to prepare for different scenarios. Calls for regulation, particularly those made by US President Joe Biden, have not gone far enough. However, Iran's diplomatic mission to the United Nations said it was willing to forgo a response in exchange for a UN Security Council condemnation of the attack against its diplomatic mission.

Hélène Chalon (Beirut, Correspondent)