May 30, 2024

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Hurricane Lydia hits Mexico » Yale Climate Communications

Hurricane Lydia hits Mexico » Yale Climate Communications

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Hurricane Lydia was on a straight path Tuesday, hitting the Mexican coast near Puerto Vallarta by evening. Lydia’s wind speeds increased by 35 mph from Monday into Tuesday morning, reaching the official threshold for rapid intensification (30 knots, or 35 mph, in 24 hours). It’s 11 a.m. EST on TuesdayLydia had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane, and its central pressure dropped to 971 millibars. Lidia was located about 195 miles west-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, moving east-northeast at 15 mph.

After struggling for days to organize a large field of rain and thunderstorms (convection), Lydia gained traction Tuesday morning, as a cloud-filled eye just appeared in satellite images and an intense central core of convection. Conditions are in place for Lydia to strengthen until landfall, as the storm is embedded in rich moisture (mid-level relative humidity around 67 percent) and passes over very warm sea surface temperatures of 30-31°C (86-88°F). ). Although upper-level winds near Lydia are increasing, these winds will likely produce outflow that will compensate for increased wind shear, and Lydia has a chance to reach Category 3 strength just before it reaches shore. Lydia’s strong onshore winds will push slopes into the rugged terrain just inland, delivering widespread rainfall of 4 to 8 inches that may exceed 12 inches in some areas, triggering flash flooding and mudslides across and near Nayarit state. Lidia’s expected landfall near Puerto Vallarta increases the risk of a major storm surge in and near the bay on which the city is located, Banderas Bay.

Figure 1. Category 2 or stronger hurricanes have been recorded within 80 miles of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, in data dating back to the 1970s. (Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks)

Mexico’s southwestern coast is no stranger to hurricanes, but only a few have been recorded this close to Puerto Vallarta in the era of reliable records for the Northeast Pacific, dating back nearly half a century (see Figure 1 above). The two strongest planes that made landfall near northern Puerto Vallarta (thus placing the city on the more dangerous right side) were Category 4 Kina In 2002 and category 3 Roslyn In 2022; They both came ashore about 60-80 miles north of the city. Both tornadoes killed four people. Kena infected more than 100 people from Puerto Vallarta to San Blas, damaging or destroying thousands of buildings. Patricia, the most powerful hurricane ever to make landfall in the eastern Pacific Ocean, moved ashore as a small but powerful Category 4 storm about 80 miles south of Puerto Vallarta. In 2011, the Class 2 Jova came ashore about 70 miles south of the city. The closest passage to Puerto Vallarta was from Calvin in 1993 and from Eugene in 1997, but both hurricanes tracked north-northwest roughly parallel to the coast, keeping storm surge to a minimum.

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Tropical Storm Max is the second named Pacific storm to hit Mexico in 2023

Tropical Storm Max made landfall around 2 p.m. EDT Monday west of Puerto Vicente Guerrero in Mexico’s Provence Guerrero with sustained winds of 65 mph and a central pressure of 991 millibars. Heavy rains falling on Max caused major flash flooding near the landfall area and to the southeast in Acapulco. Max dissipated over high terrain in Mexico on Tuesday morning.

Max is the second named Pacific storm to hit Mexico in 2023; On August 20, Tropical Storm Hillary made landfall at San Quentin, Baja California, about 215 miles southeast of San Diego, California, with sustained winds of 65 mph. In addition, the center of Hurricane Beatrice passed within five miles of the Mexican coast near Manzanillo on July 1. Last year, five named Pacific storms made landfall in Mexico, including three hurricanes.

Hurricane Bolaven hits the Northern Mariana Islands

Hurricane Bolaven passed through the channel between Rota and Tinian Islands in the US Northern Mariana Islands early Tuesday morning EST (late Tuesday night local time). As of 7 p.m. local time Tuesday, the Guam National Weather Service reported that Bolaven was bringing 3 to 5 inches of rain, and could bring total storm amounts of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated higher amounts. At 10 a.m. EST on Tuesday, Buoy 52211 On the islands a significant wave height of 14.1 feet was reported; Seas It was predicted Peaking at 20-24 feet in parts of the islands.

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At 12 noon on Tuesday (8 a.m. EDT, 10 p.m. Guam local time), Bolavin’s one-minute average wind speed was 85 mph, and it was moving north-northwest at 12 mph, away from Northern Mariana Islands, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Japan Meteorological Agency classification Bolvin has a center pressure of 970 millibars and winds of 80 mph (a 10-minute average, which is typically much lower than the 1-minute average used by the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Hurricane Warning Center). Guam radar Tuesday showed that Bolavin’s outer bands were still hitting islands that were under a flash flood watch.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast that Bolaven would quickly become a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph by Thursday. There are no wilderness areas in Bolaven’s track as it heads north-northeast this week.

Cabo Verde’s late-season system It is likely to develop this week

A tropical wave located hundreds of miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands Tuesday afternoon, named Invest 92L, was moving west-northwest to northwest toward the remote central Atlantic. This wave has significant development support from models and is likely to turn into a tropical depression this week. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 92L two- and seven-day development probabilities of 70% and 80%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list is Sean.

Figure 2. Forecast rainfall amounts for the 5-day period ending at 8 a.m. EDT on Sunday, October 15, 2023. Tropical disturbance 93 L in the Bay of Campeche is expected to draw moisture from two previous tropical storms in the eastern Pacific Ocean and bring heavy rains ranging 2 to 5 inches to parts of the Gulf Coast and southeastern US (Image credit: Noah)

Disturbances in the Bay of Campeche will bring heavy rains to the US Gulf Coast

An area of ​​disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, identified as Invest 93L, was more organized Tuesday morning, and surface pressures were falling in the area. Satellite images 93L Tuesday afternoon showed a modest amount of severe thunderstorms beginning to show rotation. A hurricane hunting plane was scheduled to investigate the disturbance Tuesday afternoon.

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The disturbance is expected to move slowly north toward Texas through Wednesday morning, then bounce back to the northeast by Wednesday afternoon as it is absorbed into the frontal area, bringing 2 to 5 inches of heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. During the weekend. . Moisture from Tropical Storm Max and Tropical Storm Lydia in the eastern Pacific will also fuel these rains, as shown in Figure 2 above. In its tropical weather forecast issued at 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 93L two- and seven-day development odds of 30%.

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